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 | | August 25, 2008
Special Edition
Washington, DC | |
To: Our Readers PUBLISHER'S NOTE: For the next two weeks as we cover the conventions-the Democrats in Denver and the Republicans in St. Paul-we will have a different publishing schedule, sending you ENPR twice a week: on Mondays and Fridays. Here's your preview of the Democratic convention, including an analysis of Obama's running mate and a new Electoral College breakdown. On Friday, Aug. 29, we'll send you a recap of the Dem. Convention. From St. Paul, it will be the same thing: a GOP preview on Monday, September 1, and a recap on Friday, 9/5. After that, we'll return to normal.
SPECIAL ENPR DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION PREVIEW
Outlook - By picking Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) as his running mate, Sen. Barack Obama telegraphed worry over his chances at election-worry that we have seen among Democrats gathering here in Denver. Once the perfect candidate, sure to be swept in by a Democratic tsunami, Obama is now in a 50-50 race with Sen. John McCain.
- In our pre-convention Electoral College analysis, we find the battleground shrinking, and Obama holding onto a one-state margin of victory.
- Democrats are nervous, but talk of a divided party is overblown.
 A Stock Tip from... Ann Coulter? Do you know which special interest has given more money to the Obama and Clinton campaigns than any other? If you guessed "trial lawyers" -- well, okay, that's too easy. But can you guess which special interest came in second? Labor unions? Nope. The Green Lobby? Nope. AARP? Wrong, again. NEA? Nyet. Give up? Okay, here's the answer... Read the rest of Ann's letter here | Democratic Convention Biden: Obama's choice of Biden was a smart move and a mostly safe move. While Biden is not the ideal running mate, nobody is. - The most obvious reason for the pick is Biden's 25—year tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. On foreign policy, Biden is well—informed, measured, and thoughtful. Vladimir Putin may have won Biden his spot on the ticket by invading Georgia. Republicans had begun to hope that 2008 could be an election about national security, without too much of a focus on Iraq. If McCain moves the election to that turf, Biden will be far stronger than Obama.
- Perhaps Biden's most important feature is being a regular white guy. Obama is so far outside the mold of past Presidents—young, black, "funny name," with a foreign—born father—that he needed some vanilla on the ticket. Second to Sen. Evan Bayh (D—Ind.), Biden is very white bread.
- Biden is a Catholic, which could cut either way. On the plus side, Democrats hope he can reach out to blue—collar Catholics who voted overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primary. On the negative side, he is a pro—choice Catholic, which could revive discussion about Catholic teaching on life, and thus further elevate abortion as an issue—a net loser for Obama.
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PUBLISHER'S NOTE: Due to his recently diagnosed brain tumor, Bob Novak has retired from his column and also from his role as editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report. Novak has edited ENPR since he and Rowland Evans launched it in 1967. Per the succession plan we worked out last summer with Bob, Eagle Publishing will continue to publish ENPR under the leadership of Senior Reporter Timothy P. Carney, a protégé of Bob's who has worked by his side for years. In his 2007 memoirs, The Prince of Darkness, Novak described Carney as "maybe my best political reporter since I began hiring them in 1982." Carney is also a contributing editor at Human Events and a weekly columnist for the Washington Examiner.
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