 |  | July 30, 2008
Vol. 43, No. 16a
Washington, DC | | | To: Our Readers PUBLISHER'S NOTE: As you may have read, Robert Novak was admitted to a Boston hospital this past Sunday where he was diagnosed with a brain tumor. I'm sure you join Bob's Eagle Publishing family in wishing him a speedy and complete recovery. Until then, Evans-Novak Political Report Senior Reporter Tim Carney—who has worked with Bob for many years, covering conventions, congressional, Senate, and presidential races for him—will assume Bob's newsletter duties. Outlook - The seven-charge indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), highlights two themes of this year: Republican losses in Congress will range from bad to catastrophic, and the anti-reform wing of the GOP seems to be steeped in corruption.
- The good news for Democrats is that the indictment could lead to another Senate seat pickup. The good news for conservatives is that the continued march into scandal or even into jail of pro-pork, old-school GOP lawmakers could help the conservative reform wing of the party.
- While Sen. John McCain's campaign continues to inspire very little enthusiasm among either conservatives or independent voters, it may be the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama that is desperately in need of a shot in the arm. His world tour wasn't enough to lift him over 50% in national polls, and the Electoral College still looks like a dead heat. Obama should be leading at this point, and he's only barely ahead.
- While close observers see reasons for McCain confidence, there is no reason for a broader GOP confidence. McCain has nearly even chances of winning, but on nearly every other score, election 2008 will be disastrous for Republicans.
| Dick Morris exposes the big scams Americans feel fleeced at every turn, and it's no wonder. As more and more critical problems develop that need national attention, the White House and Congress are effectively AWOL. And who's calling the shots instead? Big government, big business, big labor, and big lobbyists -- all with self-serving agendas that do nothing to help the ever-increasing number of American people who are losing their homes, paying exorbitant credit card interest rates, and finding their jobs increasingly outsourced to foreign countries. Now, in Fleeced: How Barack Obama, Media Mockery of Terrorist Threats, Liberals Who Want to Kill Talk Radio, the New Do-Nothing Congress, Companies That Help Iran, and Washington Lobbyists for Foreign Governments Are Fleecing Us . . . and What to Do About It, Dick Morris and Eileen McGann help you, the American taxpayer, defend not only yourself, but also our embattled nation. It's time for some accountability in government, say Morris and McGann, and the call for that accountability starts here. Fleeced is dedicated to finding the culprits, exposing their deeds, and crafting remedies. It's time to make other public officials understand that we'll no longer be fleeced. When the lights come on, the cockroaches scurry for cover. Read this book and get out the roach spray! Click Here to Learn More | Presidential National Polls: The complete lack of movement in the national polls is good news for Sen. John McCain and bad news for Sen. Barack Obama, even as the Democrat continues to hold a modest lead. - First, a word of caution: National polls are generally given undue attention in the press. There is no national election, but rather 51 state elections. On that score, our Electoral College count shows a razor-thin Obama lead (273 to 265).
- The usefulness in national polls is in getting rough ideas of a candidate's popularity, and more importantly as a judge of momentum. It is on this latter score that Obama needs to worry. On June 4, Rasmussen Reports released its first daily tracking poll of the general election (3,000 likely voters over three nights, with a margin of error of +/-2%), and it showed Obama 47%, McCain 45%. Fifty-seven days later, the Wednesday, July 30 poll showed Obama at 48% to McCain's 46%-virtually no movement. In the interim, neither candidate has shown movement outside the margin of error.
- The first observation to draw is that voters aren't paying close attention, and so minimal movement is to be expected. This is important: It's still too early to foresee the outcome of the race.
- But the deeper significance of these national poll numbers is the way in which Obama lags his party and has failed to break 50% nationally, even while all the breaks go his way.
- In all corners of the country, it's good to be a Democrat and bad to be a Republican. Democrats are guaranteed double-digit gains in the U.S. House (with pickups possible even in places like Alabama and Idaho) and significant gains in the Senate (with no seriously vulnerable incumbents or open seats). On generic ballots, Democrats post 15% leads.
- Why does Obama lag his party? His unprecedented combination of youth, race, and inexperience makes many voters wary. Playing basketball well and often appeals to many voters, but it may come across to others as unpresidential, especially in combination with his thin résumé and younger-than-his-age looks.
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 | | Editorial Offices:
1750 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Suite 1203
Washington, D.C. 20006 | Business Offices:
One Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Suite 600
Washington, D.C. 20001 | | Editor: Robert D. Novak
Senior Political Reporter/Acting Editor: Timothy P. Carney
Reporters: Charlie Spiering, Nick Mirabal
Managing Editor: Ken Hanner | Chairman: Thomas L. Phillips
President: Jeffrey J. Carneal | | Evans-Novak Political Report is published by Eagle Publishing, Inc. | |
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