Wednesday, June 11, 2008

ENPR: Senate Outlook: Four-Seat Democratic Gain

HumanEvents.com

June 11, 2008
Vol. 43, No. 12b
Washington, DC

To: Our Readers

Outlook

  1. We cannot find anyone in Democratic ranks who honestly feels there is any chance that Sen. Hillary Clinton will become Sen. Barack Obama's running mate. There are Democrats who feel for that reason that it would be a good idea if Obama makes a choice for Vice President as quickly as possible to get the unhappy reaction from Clinton's female voters over as quickly as possible.

  2. The eight-point bump in the polls for Obama after clinching the nomination is just about what would be expected and is unlikely to be permanent. A much more serious problem for McCain is the extraordinary lack of enthusiasm for him in Republican ranks even though he is the party's best bet in a down year for the GOP. It is clear now that, during the four months since McCain clinched the Republican nomination, he has failed to consolidate his base.

  3. The response from McCain insiders is that the campaign depicting Obama as a leftist, in his past and now, will bring around the Republican troops. That may well solidify conservative support for McCain, but a negative campaign by itself always has difficulty in building genuine enthusiasm.

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  1. What Republicans fear most is a genuine Obama rightward sidestep toward the middle of the road. The Democratic candidate has picked up some Republican conservative support (the "Obamacons") without his making a single conciliatory ideological move. What further gains can he make if he shows a little leg on a non-economic issue, such as education and even school vouchers?

  2. The need in Republican ranks is for McCain to do something that generates a little confidence. Just exactly what, nobody is sure.
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