UNCONDITIONAL PRAYERS FOR EL DeBARDGE: ENPR: Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268

May 28, 2008
Vol. 43, No. 11b
Washington, DC

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Outlook

Sen. Hillary Clinton's comment that Robert F. Kennedy's assassination in 1968 justified her staying in the presidential race was an event that crystallized the antipathy to her inside party ranks. Even old-time Clintonites were appalled.
The most important political impact of Clinton's conduct is to make Sen. Barack Obama's task as nominee more difficult. For the first time, we hear serious talk among Democrats that the party may not be fully able to join ranks at the convention in Denver in late August.
The hostility on both sides is intense. Clinton's labor union base (AFCSME, American Federation of Teachers, and the International Association of Machinists) pounds away at Obama (he was booed in a recent rally in Puerto Rico). Obama partisans refer to "feminists" unreasonably prolonging the competition. The longer this continues, the more difficult will be reconciliation.

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But the steady endorsement of Obama by more super-delegates is incontestable. Such old-time Clinton backers as Roger Altman and Sarah Kovner are saying the battle is over. Nobody has any doubts about who will be nominated, which makes Clinton's campaign more destructive.
The next showdown will come Saturday at the meeting of the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee to finally settle the Florida and Michigan delegate disputes. To the consternation of Democrats seeking a solution, Clinton supporters are disputing the compromise that would give Obama uncommitted delegates from Michigan. Clintonistas argue that the "uncommitted" delegates are up for grabs.
Sen. John McCain, however, still does not appear organized to take advantage of Democratic disarray. His biggest problem may be failure to realize that the Republican coalition is not fully united behind him. The most recent defectors are lobbyists expelled from his campaign who are not happy about their treatment. We continue to hear complaints from evangelicals, economic conservatives, and other critics of McCain. The refrain continues from conservatives that maybe the country and the GOP need four years of Obama.

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